LLA: March Severe Weather Setup
Page created on: 2025-02-19 05:01:29
My winter talks looking ahead to planting season included outlooks for March. Delivered in January the medium range charts presented a setup that led me to share my interpretation of an increased risk of violent weather in the middle US. Not exactly a stretch considering March has produced some of the most significant tornado events in history.
I am looking a more near term charts with more detail this morning and seeing the setups that were presented in projections weeks ago. The growing consistency leads me to post the long look ahead today.
The chart provided is an excellent visual of keeping track of air masses. The pockets of Arctic air and tropical air and their movement. These are the dynamics that make the weather we see and forecast. The specific map shows the flow pattern that generates my concern. Any time we see Arctic air plunging well south (in this case, well into the SE US) in close proximity to tropical air (in this case, surging into the US SW) concern for organized severe weather is justified.
summary: consistent signals in guidance are raising concerns for an active March producing violent severe weather in the middle and southern US.